In 2012, total working area in Indonesia is 309 working area, cosists of:
-Conventional: Production area: 75, Exploration area: 180
-CBM area: 54
In average 2002-2012, ratio production to exploration block averaging 59%. So it means probability of exploration succes is about 59%.
-trendline of Prod./Expl. shows declined, Rosing of exploration blocks were not followed by production block rose.
Graphic above explains more than words. As seen, there are a lot of exploration area and increase sporadically in 2006. on other hand, production area seems increase slowly and static year by year. therefore, only a half of exploration area can be transformed into production area. so, it means probability of exploration succes is very low about 50%.
it needs a special attention from goverment how to increase Prod/exp ratio. based on graphic above, ratio Prod/Exp decrease steply. it is very critical. or else, Indonesia petroleum production will decrease and hardly to meet domestic market.
Finally, I would like to say, help investor to build petroleum industry, it will help Indonesia energy in future. it brings no good if goverment and local peopley act imprudent and distrub oil&gas activity such as drilling, trucking, etc.